Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae2b…daa8 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$151 (-2%) realized +$377 · open −$528
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$571
7 days+$290
14 days+$297
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$30
sports 27% −$198
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -19.6% -27.2% 46% 46% -3.7%
≤30d 15 -16.6% -24.6% 47% 47% -3.8%
≤90d 15 -16.6% -24.6% 47% 47% -3.8%
all 15 -16.6% -24.6% 47% 47% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 47% -3.8%
10% -31.8% 40% -13.0%
15% -38.4% 40% -21.4%
20% -44.4% 33% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$113 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,971
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$528
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions16
Markets (closed)15 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 78¢ $1,000 $957 −$43 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1,000 $646 −$354 (-35%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Over 49¢ 47¢ $500 $477 −$23 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 60¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 68¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $17 −$83 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3,015 +$571 +19%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$131 +65%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $142 +$174 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $93 −$92 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $41 +$50 +124%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $215 −$213 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$68 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $202 +$97 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $1,006 47m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $38 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $508 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4h
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $101 4h
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $101 4h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $101 4h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,587 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $92 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY 52¢ $254 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $202 3d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $316 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $93 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 4d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $142 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $51 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $114 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $71 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $41 5d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,970.88 · official $2,970.88 (match) · 55 history records