Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae2b…90ea other 422 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$137,242 (-15%) realized −$135,678 · open −$1,564
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%157W / 258L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,137per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$318est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$98,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304,019
7 days−$303,732
14 days−$303,732
30 days−$292,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$63,167
sports 21% −$71,995
crypto 5% +$2,472
world 1% −$7,810
culture 0% −$103
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -66.9% -70.1% 9% 7% -89.6%
≤30d 213 -61.8% -65.4% 11% 10% -83.9%
≤90d 224 -51.9% -56.5% 15% 14% -75.9%
all 415 -5.8% -14.7% 38% 37% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 37% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 36% -32.4%
15% -30.4% 35% -39.0%
20% -37.2% 32% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,017) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +55% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,860 vs −$1,671 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$98,632
Realized−$135,678
Unrealized−$1,564
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses157 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions7
Markets (closed)415 / 422
History coverage141d
Avg bet$2,137
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $96,446 $95,886 −$560 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2,000 $1,985 −$15 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $250 $223 −$27 (-11%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1,000 $114 −$886 (-89%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $254 +$237 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $834 +$3,047 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,828 −$1,828 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $820 −$820 -100%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $265 −$250 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $253 +$173 +68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $409 +$902 +221%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 −$9 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $705 −$16 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $203 +$10 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $568 −$560 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $154 −$150 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $256 −$250 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $256 −$250 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1,013 −$43 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $454 −$12 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $303 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $158 −$158 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 +$1,671 +1624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $106 +$748 +705%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $556 +$317 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $455 −$11 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Brundage vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $76 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $65 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $42 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $512 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $102 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $427 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,311 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $68 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $285 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $689 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $213 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98,631.85 · official $98,631.85 (match) · 1460 history records