Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae28…8883 other 542 markets active 11h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate80%435W / 107L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$99
14 days−$98
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$60
crypto 9% +$9
tech 5% +$55
politics 2% −$10
culture 2% +$32
weather 1% +$5
sports 1% −$162
world 0% −$11
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -19.3% -27.0% 44% 19% -13.1%
≤30d 121 -13.9% -22.1% 56% 17% -11.3%
≤90d 244 -5.2% -14.3% 77% 12% -9.7%
all 542 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses435 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)542 / 542
History coverage190d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 542 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $14 −$6 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $118 −$1 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $64 +$2 +2%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $36 −$17 -46%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $49 −$1 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $68 −$50 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $99 +$33 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $80 −$1 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $32 +$13 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$44 +87%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$10 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 +$2 +10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $49 −$31 -63%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 14 $14 −$9 -63%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $40 −$15 -38%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +17%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $60 +$35 +59%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$14 -38%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $59 +$24 +40%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 14 $93 +$13 +14%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $60 +$22 +36%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $40 +$42 +106%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 −$22 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 10h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No $0 10h
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell SELL Birrell 54¢ $9 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 89¢ $34 10h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $17 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $4 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $4 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $6 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $9 13h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $37 13h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $14 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $11 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $9 13h
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell BUY Birrell 57¢ $10 14h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $15 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 14¢ $1 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 14¢ $4 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 73¢ $26 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 86¢ $4 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $40 23h
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $49 25h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $21 25h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 25h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 25h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1485 history records