Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae28…0285 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$805 (-11%) realized +$991 · open −$1,796
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$367
14 days+$611
30 days+$950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$11
crypto 27% −$1,431
tech 14% +$307
other 10% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +39.3% +26.1% 60% 40% +25.2%
≤30d 14 +21.9% +10.3% 57% 43% +7.0%
≤90d 14 +21.9% +10.3% 57% 43% +7.0%
all 14 +21.9% +10.3% 57% 43% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 43% +7.0%
10% -0.3% 36% -3.2%
15% -9.9% 29% -12.6%
20% -18.7% 29% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$38 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.21 per $1 lost it wins $5.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$991
Unrealized−$1,796
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage27d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Down 54¢ 40¢ $215 $162 −$53 (-25%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 63¢ 99¢ $63 $99 +$36 (+57%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 16¢ $100 $41 −$59 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ $1,515 $17 −$1,498 (-99%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ $228 $7 −$221 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr Jun 28 $575 +$8 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $103 +$297 +290%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $47 −$26 -54%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $200 +$120 +60%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $158 +$40 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,384 +$182 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $1,552 +$68 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$46 -88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 +$42 +208%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $580 +$419 +72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $478 −$112 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 54¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 54¢ $130 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $14 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $6 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $31 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $42 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $37 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $4 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $165 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $19 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $9 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $19 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $10 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $20 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $32 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $25 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $26 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $5 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 99¢ $88 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 90¢ $24 16h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $62 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $33 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $24 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $39 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $99 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 17h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 55¢ $36 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.34 · official $317.34 · 106 history records