Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae25…94bb sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$199 (-7%) realized −$200 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$29
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$130
politics 7% −$198
other 4% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +35.3% +22.4% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤90d 10 +26.1% +14.1% 60% 60% +17.3%
all 35 -5.4% -14.5% 40% 40% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 40% -16.0%
10% -22.6% 40% -24.0%
15% -30.1% 40% -31.4%
20% -37.0% 40% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$79 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage612d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) Matheus Camilo 38¢ 38¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $76 +$74 +97%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $76 +$56 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 05 $76 −$75 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $77 +$158 +206%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $51 +$39 +76%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $133 +$167 +126%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 13 $100 +$83 +83%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $54 −$53 -98%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $100 −$99 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $112 +$143 +127%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Car Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $100 +$100 +100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $100 +$212 +212%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Dec 13 $64 −$64 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 13 $75 −$75 -100%
UFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $75 −$3 -4%
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO? Nov 23 $52 +$69 +133%
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims) Nov 22 $50 +$97 +194%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bonfim vs. Padilla Nov 09 $75 +$78 +104%
Salikhov vs. Medic Nov 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Rakic vs. Murzakanov Oct 26 $70 +$73 +104%
Volkov vs. Almeida Oct 25 $65 +$116 +178%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Oct 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 38¢ $76 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 42¢ $102 12d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 57¢ $76 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $76 13d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 46¢ $76 22d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 32¢ $77 28d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 37¢ $82 48d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 61¢ $51 49d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 56¢ $51 49d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $54 76d
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Cub Swanson 54¢ $100 76d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Curtis Blaydes 52¢ $100 76d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Joe Pyfer 44¢ $112 90d
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Reinier de Ridder 33¢ $100 111d
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Rob Font 29¢ $100 111d
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Delija 52¢ $100 125d
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main BUY Reese 39¢ $100 125d
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) BUY Seahawks 50¢ $100 138d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Gaethje 100¢ $312 153d
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Allen 34¢ $100 153d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Gaethje 32¢ $100 153d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 52¢ $64 196d
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Royval 31¢ $75 196d
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Cejudo 31¢ $50 202d
UFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Guskov 52¢ $75 202d
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Moreno 47¢ $75 202d
Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 216d
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Horiguchi 34¢ $50 216d
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Muhammad 29¢ $50 216d
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Edwards 41¢ $50 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.99 · official $75.99 (match) · 52 history records