Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae23…cea3 other 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 49L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 61% −$14
politics 24% −$19
other 11% +$5
sports 1% +$97
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 +10.3% -0.2% 26% 19% -7.7%
all 66 +8.2% -2.1% 26% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 15% -9.3%
10% -11.5% 15% -17.9%
15% -20.1% 15% -25.9%
20% -27.9% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage620d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $137 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $344 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$3 +44%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $175 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $167 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $344 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $7 +$5 +79%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $12 +$10 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $22 $0 +0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $17 +$12 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $13 +$14 +108%
Knicks vs. Thunder Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $20 +$10 +50%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 01 $29 +$11 +40%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 26m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 27h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 29h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 30h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $32 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 24d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $32 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.85 · official $20.85 (match) · 361 history records