Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xae20…7407 world 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$5
politics 23% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 17% -9.8%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 17% -9.8%
all 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 17% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 17% -9.8%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage9d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $445 $443 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 24 $445 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Jun 23 $445 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $446 −$5 -1%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$6 -11%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 15 $37 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.86 · official $442.86 (match) · 19 history records