Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xae1e…b094 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$6
sports 37% +$57
other 21% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 0% -7.5%
all 7 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 0% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 0% -7.5%
10% -16.8% 0% -16.4%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.5%
20% -32.2% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$3 · ×7.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.4 per $1 lost it wins $5.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage81d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Jun 22 $232 −$1 -0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $256 −$3 -1%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $247 −$2 -1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 03 $461 +$29 +6%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $442 −$5 -1%
Spread: Coventry City FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $319 +$29 +9%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $158 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $231 39m
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $232 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $254 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $256 3h
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $245 4d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $247 4d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Croatia 94¢ $461 20d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $437 20d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $442 20d
Spread: Coventry City FC (-2.5) BUY Blackburn Rovers FC 92¢ $319 66d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $158 81d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $158 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records