Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

AE 0xae1c…6842 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$49 (+9%) realized +$62 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +229% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +174% what you keep after slip

Net edge+174%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$53per market

Trades / day17.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+197.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+228.7%	+197.4%	67%	67%	+65.5%
≤30d	6	+228.7%	+197.4%	67%	67%	+65.5%
≤90d	6	+228.7%	+197.4%	67%	67%	+65.5%
all	6	+228.7%	+197.4%	67%	67%	+65.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+197.4%	67%	+65.5%
10%	+169.0%	67%	+49.7%
15%	+143.0%	67%	+35.2%
20%	+119.1%	50%	+22.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +83% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +229% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$3 · ×10.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×21.85 per $1 lost it wins $21.85

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$377

Realized+$62

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$53

Trades / day17.0

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$206	$206	−$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	80¢	72¢	$170	$154	−$16 (-9%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals	Yes	22¢	29¢	$7	$9	+$2 (+32%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway?	Yes	16¢	19¢	$7	$8	+$1 (+19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$10	+$22	+216%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$100	+$48	+48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$3	+$32	+1115%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$10	+$11	+109%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	$0	-15%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	22¢	$7	1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway?	BUY Yes	16¢	$7	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$171	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$51	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$148	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$32	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$150	10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	31¢	$10	10h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	10h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	10h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	10h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$100	10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.35 · official $377.35 (match) · 18 history records