Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae15…ef38 crypto 1154 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$688 (-5%) realized −$688 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate82%942W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 5% -12.0%
≤30d 163 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 5% -12.0%
≤90d 1017 -2.1% -11.4% 82% 26% -12.4%
all 1154 -1.8% -11.2% 82% 28% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 28% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 12% -21.2%
15% -27.4% 5% -28.8%
20% -34.5% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$688
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses942 / 212
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1154 / 1154
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1154 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $34 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records