Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae13…dcc4 crypto 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$28 (-5%) realized −$41 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%113W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$15
other 11% −$57
sports 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -24.1% -31.3% 25% 24% -6.8%
≤30d 151 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 26% -11.8%
≤90d 228 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 28% -16.8%
all 228 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 28% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 28% -16.8%
10% -26.1% 22% -24.8%
15% -33.2% 16% -32.0%
20% -39.7% 14% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 5.076283046565989% → late -24.311412202539852% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses113 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)228 / 236
History coverage47d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$8 +385%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 28m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.26 · official $5.26 (match) · 494 history records