Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae13…2125 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$652 (-3%) realized −$650 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%39W / 25L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days−$1,290
14 days−$1,290
30 days−$1,290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$592
other 31% −$1,276
crypto 3% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 48% -24.9%
≤30d 50 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 48% -24.9%
≤90d 50 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 48% -24.9%
all 64 -1.0% -10.4% 61% 48% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 48% -12.0%
10% -19.0% 41% -20.4%
15% -26.8% 39% -28.1%
20% -34.0% 34% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$169 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$650
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses39 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage247d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $81 +$62 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) Jun 29 $0 $0 +100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $126 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $71 +$32 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +28%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,014 −$987 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2,524 +$213 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,179 +$344 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $73 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $7 1h
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) SELL Brazil 1¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 6h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 1¢ $12 6h
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) BUY Brazil 0¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) BUY Brazil 0¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) BUY Brazil 0¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) BUY Brazil 0¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.87 · official $76.87 (match) · 129 history records