Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AE 0xae12…1cf3 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+5%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%51W / 27L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +11.4% +0.8% 65% 58% -0.6%
≤30d 78 +11.4% +0.8% 65% 58% -0.6%
≤90d 78 +11.4% +0.8% 65% 58% -0.6%
all 78 +11.4% +0.8% 65% 58% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 58% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 51% -10.1%
15% -17.7% 40% -18.8%
20% -25.8% 22% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses51 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records