Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xae0c…0b7c crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+26%) realized +$58 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +68.4% +52.4% 64% 64% +21.9%
≤30d 28 +68.4% +52.4% 64% 64% +21.9%
≤90d 28 +68.4% +52.4% 64% 64% +21.9%
all 28 +68.4% +52.4% 64% 64% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.4% 64% +21.9%
10% ← realistic here +37.8% 54% +10.3%
15% +24.5% 54% -0.4%
20% +12.3% 46% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +117% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)28 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$5 +457%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +530%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$14 +260%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$14 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $7 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.23 (match) · 56 history records