Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae0b…0913 sports 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$473 (-4%) realized −$418 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%89W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$387
7 days+$400
14 days+$253
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$564
other 33% +$294
world 14% −$124
crypto 1% +$162
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +15.3% +4.3% 70% 67% +9.9%
≤30d 81 +0.9% -8.7% 54% 52% -9.2%
≤90d 177 -11.2% -19.7% 50% 48% -10.3%
all 178 -11.2% -19.7% 50% 48% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 48% -10.4%
10% -27.4% 43% -19.0%
15% -34.4% 36% -26.8%
20% -40.8% 22% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$42 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$609
Realized−$418
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses89 / 89
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions6
Markets (closed)178 / 188
History coverage96d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $319 $303 −$16 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $112 $84 −$28 (-25%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $18 +$32 +176%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $61 −$9 -16%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $56 +$26 +47%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $86 +$39 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$24 +24%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $61 +$43 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $15 +$17 +116%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $40 +$11 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $138 +$136 +99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $56 +$26 +47%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $131 +$24 +19%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $41 +$41 +101%
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-3.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $66 +$33 +50%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $100 −$99 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $60 −$60 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$30 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $91 +$54 +60%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $90 +$26 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $92 +$38 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$26 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 +$71 +128%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $122 +$128 +105%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $96 +$31 +32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $131 +$32 +24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$50 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$44 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 +$50 +140%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $121 +$27 +23%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $121 +$61 +50%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$82 +83%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $130 +$47 +36%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $104 −$103 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $85 −$84 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $149 −$147 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY Yes 66¢ $113 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $59 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $51 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $123 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $25 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $40 4h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 46¢ $29 4h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $30 4h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 85¢ $50 4h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 85¢ $50 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $45 4h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY 35¢ $18 4h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $40 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 46¢ $15 20h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $61 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $56 32h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $131 2d
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-3.5) BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 13¢ $10 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 28¢ $20 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $41 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-2 BUY 55¢ $86 2d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 81¢ $100 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 92¢ $100 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 75¢ $60 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $36 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $56 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.60 · official $608.60 (match) · 448 history records