Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae09…4d75 crypto 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (326 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%76W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day326.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$66
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (326 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +6.0% -4.1% 76% 48% -11.7%
≤30d 100 +6.0% -4.1% 76% 48% -11.7%
≤90d 100 +6.0% -4.1% 76% 48% -11.7%
all 100 +6.0% -4.1% 76% 48% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover326.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 48% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 30% -20.2%
15% -21.6% 16% -27.9%
20% -29.3% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses76 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day326.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 41¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 57¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$5 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$10 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$9 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $72 −$13 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $64 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $122 −$95 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $67 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$32 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$7 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$9 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$2 -3%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $34 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.27 · official $4.27 (match) · 448 history records