Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae07…5a39 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$161 (+1%) realized +$190 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$180
14 days+$180
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$3
sports 28% −$3
other 20% +$175
crypto 12% −$8
economics 9% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +442.2% +390.6% 100% 100% +390.6%
≤30d 1 +442.2% +390.6% 100% 100% +390.6%
≤90d 2 +221.3% +190.7% 100% 50% +84.9%
all 44 +8.8% -1.6% 52% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 7% -7.9%
10% -11.0% 2% -16.7%
15% -19.6% 2% -24.8%
20% -27.5% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.42 per $1 lost it wins $12.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage243d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 63¢ $92 $63 −$29 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$180 +442%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $132 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $5 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 07 $126 +$1 +1%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 27 $124 +$2 +2%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 04 $105 +$19 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 11 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? Dec 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Dec 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on November 3? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 16 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 8? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 5? Nov 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 4? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 5? Nov 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 25? Nov 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 25? Nov 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 25 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 25 $250 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 25 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $833 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $380 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $455 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $260 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $300 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Oct 25 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $150 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $155 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $103 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $92 8d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $132 96d
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $126 114d
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? BUY Yes 98¢ $124 129d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $105 141d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $8 148d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 167d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $5 177d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY No 100¢ $5 186d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $105 195d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 SELL No 99¢ $105 195d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 97¢ $103 196d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $60 220d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 220d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 220d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 220d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $5 229d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $6 229d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 234d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 234d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 5? BUY No 97¢ $6 234d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on November 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 234d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $544 242d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $250 242d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $250 242d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $545 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? SELL No 100¢ $599 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $600 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.03 · official $162.99 (match) · 102 history records