Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xae03…378c sports 12 markets active 15h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$387 (-20%) realized −$376 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$99
crypto 26% −$500
sports 20% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.1% +24.0% 57% 57% +22.4%
≤30d 7 +37.1% +24.0% 57% 57% +22.4%
≤90d 7 +37.1% +24.0% 57% 57% +22.4%
all 10 +14.7% +3.8% 50% 50% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 50% -25.5%
10% -6.2% 40% -32.6%
15% -15.2% 40% -39.1%
20% -23.5% 20% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$134 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$376
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage106d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$94 -93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$84 +272%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$57 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 03 $800 +$90 +11%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 03 $100 −$24 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 15h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 75¢ $98 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $101 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $6 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $101 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 68¢ $50 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? BUY Yes 26¢ $500 104d
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $890 105d
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $76 105d
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 105d
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $800 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.69 · official $88.69 (match) · 21 history records