Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae02…21e8 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,766 (-7%) realized −$2,724 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,013per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$5,058now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,834
7 days−$4,330
14 days−$3,014
30 days−$3,014
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,025
sports 16% −$4,081
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -37.2% -43.2% 29% 29% -22.6%
≤30d 18 -28.9% -35.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
≤90d 18 -28.9% -35.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
all 18 -28.9% -35.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 33% -17.8%
10% -41.8% 33% -25.7%
15% -47.5% 33% -32.9%
20% -52.6% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,931) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,141 vs −$1,321 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5,058
Realized−$2,724
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2,013
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5,100 $5,058 −$42 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,042 −$2,000 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $717 −$700 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9,866 +$5,866 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,069 −$5,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,253 −$1,243 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $712 −$700 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,896 −$1,861 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $511 +$1,273 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $818 −$800 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $519 −$504 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,500 +$1,425 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,634 −$1,600 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,931 +$2,200 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $700 −$686 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $576 −$564 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,128 +$467 +41%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5,160 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,042 17h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $717 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $15,732 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $4,978 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $4,888 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5,069 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,253 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $407 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,896 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,784 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $818 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $519 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,495 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,634 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $700 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,931 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $576 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,595 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,128 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,058.20 · official $5,058.20 (match) · 30 history records