Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae02…c787 world 22 markets active 16h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% $0
other 20% +$1
crypto 6% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage454d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 16 $1 $0 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $8 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $23 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $32 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $16 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $16 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $31 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $35 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $0 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $25 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $25 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $19 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $13 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records