Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae00…2318
crypto · 199 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$260 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$260 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$260
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses89 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage39d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 199 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$133
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 31 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $5 +$10 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 31 $2 +$10 +453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 31 $5 +$12 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 31 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $2 +$4 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $16 −$13 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $12 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $7 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.6% -26.4% 41% 29% -19.7%
≤30d 185 -21.7% -29.2% 42% 35% -24.5%
≤90d 199 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 37% -22.4%
all 199 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 37% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 37% -22.4%
10% -33.7% 28% -29.8%
15% -40.1% 24% -36.6%
20% -46.0% 20% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 522 history records