Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae00…8bd4 world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$12
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$7
other 21% −$10
sports 20% −$25
politics 14% +$4
finance 2% $0
weather 1% −$17
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 25% -7.6%
≤30d 25 +82.2% +64.8% 40% 16% -8.1%
≤90d 46 +45.1% +31.3% 33% 11% -9.1%
all 86 +14.1% +3.2% 38% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 13% -10.8%
10% -6.7% 9% -19.3%
15% -15.7% 6% -27.1%
20% -23.9% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage548d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $52 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $30 +$2 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $88 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $132 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $17 +$4 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $130 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 -15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 +$7 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $48 −$5 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $79 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $81 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $292 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $292 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $135 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $10 +$5 +44%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $129 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $272 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $52 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $32 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $52 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $40 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $22 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $22 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.17 · official $52.59 (match) · 320 history records