Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadfd…7b25 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$611 (-15%) realized −$616 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$46
30 days−$661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$267
crypto 30% −$484
finance 8% +$37
world 8% +$28
tech 6% +$46
politics 3% −$24
sports 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +20.5% +9.0% 100% 100% +9.0%
≤30d 10 -38.0% -43.9% 50% 30% -50.8%
≤90d 27 -13.4% -21.7% 70% 48% -29.5%
all 41 -17.6% -25.4% 63% 41% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 41% -25.9%
10% -32.6% 22% -33.0%
15% -39.1% 15% -39.4%
20% -45.1% 5% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$76 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized−$616
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage210d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $359 $359 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 78¢ 100¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $88 +$18 +20%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $333 +$28 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $203 −$203 -100%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 08 $49 +$20 +41%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $32 +$3 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $154 −$154 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $378 −$290 -77%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $108 +$20 +19%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $66 +$23 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $132 +$23 +18%
Will Verizon (VZ) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 27 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 21 $28 +$5 +18%
Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 16 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 15 $139 +$10 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $93 +$47 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $166 +$21 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $90 +$77 +86%
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $74 +$16 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $72 +$3 +4%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $53 −$53 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $96 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 9PM ET Jan 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jan 01 $296 +$90 +31%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 29 $114 +$46 +40%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Dec 29 $5 +$5 +105%
Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025? Dec 29 $54 $0 +1%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 1? Dec 03 $30 −$26 -85%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 01 $122 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $106 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 97¢ $361 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $69 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $88 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $88 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $23 27d
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $24 27d
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 27d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 92¢ $32 27d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 83¢ $108 28d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $333 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $154 28d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $203 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $202 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $89 40d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $64 40d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 73¢ $66 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 40d
Will Verizon (VZ) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 85¢ $16 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 84¢ $132 70d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 80¢ $21 71d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 85¢ $21 71d
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 96¢ $42 71d
Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 71d
Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 96¢ $37 71d
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $139 72d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $93 74d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $93 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.46 · official $493.46 (match) · 103 history records