Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AD 0xadfc…d97a other 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,974 (-98%) realized −$1,974 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,104
other 44% −$870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -96.8% -97.1% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -96.8% -97.1% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -96.8% -97.1% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -96.8% -97.1% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.1% 0% -100.0%
10% -97.4% 0% -100.0%
15% -97.6% 0% -100.0%
20% -97.8% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$329 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,974
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$4 -81%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $706 −$691 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $143 −$139 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 30h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 41¢ $102 30h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 0¢ $1 32h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 0¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $139 39h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 39h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $680 39h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $1,021 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records