Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf9…8ed3 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-33%) realized −$122 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -40.8% -46.5% 14% 14% -36.5%
≤30d 42 -40.8% -46.5% 14% 14% -36.5%
≤90d 42 -40.8% -46.5% 14% 14% -36.5%
all 42 -40.8% -46.5% 14% 14% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.5% 14% -36.5%
10% ← realistic here -51.6% 14% -42.6%
15% -56.3% 14% -48.1%
20% -60.5% 14% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$8 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 10¢ 18¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$112 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.25 · official $9.25 (match) · 93 history records