Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AD 0xadf9…aede sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$184 (+13%) realized +$214 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%32W / 36L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$202
14 days+$173
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$92
other 10% +$30
world 2% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% +5.4%
≤30d 68 +14.2% +3.3% 47% 47% +2.3%
≤90d 68 +14.2% +3.3% 47% 47% +2.3%
all 68 +14.2% +3.3% 47% 47% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 47% +2.3%
10% -6.6% 47% -7.4%
15% -15.6% 43% -16.4%
20% -23.9% 43% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$214
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses32 / 36
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage8d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 23¢ 24¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $25 +$7 +27%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 +$27 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$35 +172%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 +$27 +188%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 +$17 +90%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$72 +307%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$67 +328%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $32 +$40 +124%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$26 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +68%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$27 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 +$22 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $19 +$46 +238%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$19 +188%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $20 25m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $31 1h
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 33h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 33h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 33h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 33h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 30¢ $31 33h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 33h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $21 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $19 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $20 2d
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $30 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $32 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $27 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $14 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $19 3d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $18 3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $20 3d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $24 3d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 3d
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.42 · official $100.42 (match) · 107 history records