Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AD 0xadf5…ed54 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$220 (+30%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$26
14 days+$212
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$186
other 39% +$26
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.3% -25.2% 41% 41% -3.8%
≤30d 24 +72.3% +55.9% 54% 54% +25.1%
≤90d 24 +72.3% +55.9% 54% 54% +25.1%
all 24 +72.3% +55.9% 54% 54% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.9% 54% +25.1%
10% +41.0% 50% +13.1%
15% +27.3% 50% +2.2%
20% +14.9% 46% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +190% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$16 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 33
History coverage13d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$18 +46%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$28 +55%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $24 +$20 +82%
Exact Score: UD Almería 1 - 1 Málaga CF? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $32 −$15 -45%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$44 +215%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $17 +$24 +139%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$50 +197%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $28 +$31 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $23 +$25 +105%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$60 +1488%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $19 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 20¢ $8 1h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 14h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U BUY 30¢ $19 14h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: O/U BUY 13¢ $12 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $44 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: UD Almería 1 - 1 Málaga CF? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 18¢ $10 3d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $21 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $18 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $32 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 81¢ $64 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $24 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $41 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.67 · official $66.67 · 49 history records