Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xadf5…3f26 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,140 (-1%) realized −$1,139 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%23W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$960
politics 36% −$40
sports 14% −$155
culture 2% −$1
crypto 0% +$28
world 0% −$36
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -3.2% -12.5% 7% 2% -11.6%
all 126 -1.8% -11.1% 18% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 13% -10.6%
10% -19.6% 13% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 13% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$973) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$23 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$1,139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses23 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage132d
Avg bet$798
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $546 $544 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $341 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2,083 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,792 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,705 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,717 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $71 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 20 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,141 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $362 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $362 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $448 −$1 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $906 −$906 -100%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,251 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,923 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $5,961 −$6 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $158 −$37 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 09 $110 +$55 +50%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 02 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $3,129 −$3 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $785 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $2,355 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $341 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $341 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $508 5h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $509 6h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $510 26h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $511 30h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $498 47h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $499 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $472 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $472 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $486 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $487 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $485 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $471 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $472 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $546 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $868 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $869 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $768 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $770 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $919 20d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $920 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $658 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.39 · official $544.39 (match) · 409 history records