Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xadf4…069e sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$29 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days+$598
14 days+$500
30 days+$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$178
other 7% −$229
politics 4% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 21% 21% +1.7%
≤30d 37 -9.1% -17.8% 22% 22% -0.4%
≤90d 38 -11.5% -19.9% 21% 21% -2.3%
all 51 -17.8% -25.6% 22% 22% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 22% -10.6%
10% -32.8% 20% -19.1%
15% -39.2% 20% -26.9%
20% -45.2% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$95 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage600d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 36¢ $410 $364 −$46 (-11%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $334 $341 +$7 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 12¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $798 −$39 -5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $60 −$59 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 +$65 +127%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $92 −$90 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $151 −$100 -67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $105 −$102 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$3 -5%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$5 -9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $68 −$66 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $60 +$233 +388%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $644 +$2,667 +414%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $715 −$700 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $791 −$784 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 −$23 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $263 −$187 -71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$89 -87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $41 −$37 -90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$80 -79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $27 +$19 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $139 +$115 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$14 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $26 −$16 -61%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $21 +$179 +874%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $62 −$61 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $41 +$6 +15%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $44 −$43 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Norwich City FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw? Nov 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Chennai Open: Lanlana Tararudee vs Janice Tjen Nov 01 $134 −$92 -68%
Will Meizhou Hakka FC win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $50 +$68 +135%
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $50 +$96 +192%
Knicks vs. Bulls Nov 01 $50 +$85 +170%
Will Atlético San Luis vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? Nov 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Nov 01 $50 −$35 -69%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Oct 31 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-10-30? Oct 30 $207 −$207 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $342 44m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $417 54m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $758 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $798 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $60 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $116 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $51 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $51 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $8 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $92 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $99 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $35 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $105 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $48 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $45 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $46 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $68 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $51 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $21 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $51 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $60 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $51 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $3 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $641 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $715 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.88 · official $756.88 (match) · 92 history records