Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf4…5b8c sports 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$990 (-16%) realized −$321 · open −$669
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate72%102W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$692
sports 29% −$62
politics 8% −$34
world 6% −$233
tech 2% +$8
culture 2% −$7
crypto 1% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 40% -31.6%
≤30d 14 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 43% -26.4%
≤90d 73 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 32% -14.3%
all 142 -7.4% -16.2% 72% 23% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 23% -20.1%
10% -24.2% 16% -27.7%
15% -31.6% 13% -34.7%
20% -38.3% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$29 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized−$321
Unrealized−$669
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses102 / 40
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions8
Markets (closed)142 / 150
History coverage224d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $500 $500 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $979 $339 −$640 (-65%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $66 $66 +$1 (+1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 55¢ 56¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Real Madrid next? No 97¢ 80¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? No 96¢ 71¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $36 −$25 -68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $39 +$61 +156%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $55 +$45 +82%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $47 −$46 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $43 +$57 +133%
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $6 $0 +2%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $65 +$35 +54%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $67 +$33 +49%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $89 −$88 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $29 +$71 +244%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 May 08 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Delyan Peevski be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 May 08 $7 +$1 +8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $21 −$14 -68%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 05 $28 −$27 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $31 −$2 -7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 03 $69 −$19 -27%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $29 +$71 +245%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $7 $0 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $39 +$59 +152%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $31 −$22 -72%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Apr 20 $19 −$12 -64%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $70 +$31 +44%
Will Beinir Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands follo Apr 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 18 $60 +$39 +65%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 18 $64 +$35 +55%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 18 $85 +$15 +17%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 12 $70 +$28 +40%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $22 +$28 +127%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $25 +$14 +57%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? Apr 10 $6 $0 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin be the top performing crypto for the week of March 2? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 55¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Refuser 12¢ $11 27h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 36¢ $29 30h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 36¢ $4 30h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 36¢ $4 31h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $64 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 57¢ $57 3d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 84¢ $84 16d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $100 16d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $500 16d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $55 17d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 46¢ $47 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 44¢ $44 23d
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 40¢ $67 23d
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 23d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $500 23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $43 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $499 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $65 25d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $0 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $62 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.20 · official $1,092.19 (match) · 564 history records