Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf2…976e other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$23
politics 21% −$2
sports 7% +$15
tech 5% $0
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +0.6% -9.0% 10% 7% -9.7%
all 104 +0.6% -9.0% 10% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 5% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage88d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $151 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $357 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $131 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $142 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $147 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 6h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 21d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 25d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $67 28d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $67 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 29d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 29d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 29d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records