Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf2…6599 crypto 809 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$731 (-3%) realized −$721 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%363W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$135
14 days−$1,070
30 days−$1,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,883
other 4% −$88
weather 2% −$96
world 0% −$40
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -22.9% -30.3% 43% 35% -13.1%
≤30d 450 -24.0% -31.2% 43% 36% -18.9%
≤90d 808 -16.9% -24.8% 45% 39% -17.4%
all 808 -16.9% -24.8% 45% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 39% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 31% -25.3%
15% -38.6% 23% -32.5%
20% -44.6% 17% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$721
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses363 / 445
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)808 / 809
History coverage67d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 76¢ 68¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 356 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $204 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$27 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $206 +$36 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $71 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$40 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$56 +91%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$22 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $116 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $55 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $110 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $108 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $125 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $29 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $148 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.68 · official $270.89 · 2057 history records