Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf2…8e1e crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (233 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day233.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$145
other 13% −$37
sports 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (233 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 41% -18.3%
≤30d 46 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 41% -18.3%
≤90d 46 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 41% -18.3%
all 46 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 41% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover233.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 41% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 41% -26.1%
15% -29.5% 41% -33.2%
20% -36.4% 39% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$30 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day233.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 20¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$26 +99%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$22 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $154 −$16 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $23 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $165 −$110 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $78 −$40 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $63 +$113 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $72 −$31 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$53 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$30 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$46 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$39 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$40 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$27 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$29 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$22 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$33 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +46%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $34 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 14m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 33m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $138 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 37m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.38 · official $7.12 · 248 history records