Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf1…6021 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$2
other 24% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤30d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 31 -2.3% -11.6% 26% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage284d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 19 $31 −$2 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $41 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -33%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Sep 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 12 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $14 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $9 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $36 21d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $42 21d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $41 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $39 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $6 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $45 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $8 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $13 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $9 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $20 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $26 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $15 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.17 · official $41.17 (match) · 122 history records