Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xadf0…5dc5 sports 1507 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 195d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$289 (+1%) realized +$289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%1401W / 106L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$10
14 days+$116
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$355
other 22% −$6
crypto 1% −$21
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -1.6% -11.0% 94% 6% -9.1%
≤30d 262 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 6% -8.1%
≤90d 982 -0.6% -10.1% 96% 4% -8.7%
all 1507 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -8.5%
10% -18.4% 3% -17.3%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1401 / 106
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1507 / 1507
History coverage195d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1507 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $38 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $28 +$12 +41%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $39 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs Linx Legacy Esport (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligae Jun 15 $38 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs Linx Legacy Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$17 +76%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: DC (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $69 +$11 +16%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $75 +$5 +7%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $78 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $78 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 100¢ $40 11m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 94¢ $38 15m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 99¢ $40 1h
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $40 5h
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY ex-RUBY 99¢ $40 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $40 7h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra - Map 1 Winner BUY Contra 98¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL SNITKO Esports 100¢ $40 21h
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Hermine Esports Club 100¢ $40 21h
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Hermine Esports Club 98¢ $39 22h
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY SNITKO Esports 98¢ $39 22h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen SELL Linx Legacy Esport 100¢ $40 22h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen BUY Linx Legacy Esport 98¢ $39 23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL BakS eSports 100¢ $40 23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY BakS eSports 99¢ $40 23h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress - Map 1 Winner SELL Linx Legacy Esport 100¢ $40 23h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress - Map 1 Winner BUY Linx Legacy Esport 98¢ $39 23h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $40 28h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 99¢ $40 28h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $40 29h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $28 29h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $40 29h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 99¢ $40 30h
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 99¢ $5 43h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 100¢ $80 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 99¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 99¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 100¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records