Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadee…d89c crypto 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-2%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%119W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$3
other 29% −$15
politics 13% $0
culture 5% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 4% $0
world 2% −$35
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 98 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 0% -10.0%
all 126 -1.4% -10.8% 94% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -11.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses119 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)126 / 129
History coverage556d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 24? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 18m
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 99¢ $12 22d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $11 23d
Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 24d
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $12 25d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 99¢ $18 26d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY Yes 100¢ $15 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 31d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $22 32d
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F BUY No 100¢ $11 33d
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F BUY No 100¢ $27 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.09 · official $64.09 (match) · 262 history records