Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadec…fedd
other · 24 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$9 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$39
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)13 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 11 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? No 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden leading at halftime? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 57¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$15 +712%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$10
sports 39% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY No $1 10m
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 59m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 12h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 46h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $4 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $5 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +60.3% +45.0% 38% 38% +17.5%
≤30d 13 +60.3% +45.0% 38% 38% +17.5%
≤90d 13 +60.3% +45.0% 38% 38% +17.5%
all 13 +60.3% +45.0% 38% 38% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.0% 38% +17.5%
10% +31.1% 38% +6.3%
15% +18.5% 38% -4.0%
20% +6.8% 38% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.63 · official $38.63 (match) · 37 history records