Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xade9…37b3 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-4%) realized −$73 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate82%36W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$143
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$55
other 17% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -32.0% -38.5% 62% 38% -27.6%
≤30d 44 -7.5% -16.3% 82% 32% -13.3%
≤90d 44 -7.5% -16.3% 82% 32% -13.3%
all 44 -7.5% -16.3% 82% 32% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 32% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 9% -21.6%
15% -31.7% 9% -29.2%
20% -38.4% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$33 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses36 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage14d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 38¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $45 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $71 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $121 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$7 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $210 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $140 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $136 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $116 +$10 +9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.74 · official $16.74 (match) · 423 history records