Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xade7…9d34
sports · 542 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6,294 -68%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,294 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$6,294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses277 / 563
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions3
Markets (closed)840 / 542
History coverage60d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day55.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 840 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,847
7 days−$5,926
14 days−$5,944
30 days−$6,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? No 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? No 23¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? No 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 87¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Over 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-09? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-09? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $33 −$26 -78%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-26? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $23 −$21 -92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -59%
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 −$31 -158%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-09? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$9 -119%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Union Berlin vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-29 tweets on September 7, 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$376
other 15% −$77
world 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $7 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 14h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 14h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 27h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 27h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 44h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $4 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 26¢ $1 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 49¢ $2 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 46h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 46h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 46h
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 3d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 3d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 3d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 3d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 3d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 66¢ $3 3d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 4d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 4d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -75.8% -78.1% 9% 9% -92.3%
≤30d 431 -66.9% -70.0% 14% 14% -87.9%
≤90d 840 -33.9% -40.2% 33% 31% -46.6%
all 840 -33.9% -40.2% 33% 31% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.2% 31% -46.6%
10% ← realistic here -45.9% 26% -51.7%
15% -51.2% 22% -56.4%
20% -55.9% 17% -60.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.32 · official $17.32 (match) · 3500 history records