Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xade5…0113 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,677 (-10%) realized −$6,203 · open −$5,474
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,020per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$12,000
other 24% −$5,137
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% −$802
world 0% −$330
politics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.6% -13.7% 17% 17% +2.7%
≤30d 6 -4.6% -13.7% 17% 17% +2.7%
≤90d 6 -4.6% -13.7% 17% 17% +2.7%
all 26 -14.6% -22.8% 38% 38% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 38% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 27% -28.2%
15% -36.9% 15% -35.2%
20% -43.1% 12% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$3,100) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$945 vs −$1,393 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$6,203
Unrealized−$5,474
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage157d
Avg bet$4,020
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ $5,482 $8 −$5,474 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $11,948 +$1,638 +14%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 23 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $26 −$2 -9%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $26 −$1 -6%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 23 $25 −$1 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 23 $26 −$2 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 27 $330 −$330 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Feb 01 $6,383 −$6,383 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $1,000 +$282 +28%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $4,965 −$4,965 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $3,000 +$1,014 +34%
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $1,000 +$122 +12%
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $6,857 +$2,791 +41%
UFC 325: Brundage vs. Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $2,189 +$693 +32%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $1,000 +$753 +75%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 01 $50,409 −$1,858 -4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Jan 28 $1,370 −$26 -2%
Will New England beat Seattle in Super Bowl LX? Jan 28 $2,542 +$2,064 +81%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $100 +$79 +79%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $2,642 −$282 -11%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 25 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 25 $100 −$35 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $716 23m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $718 23m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $3,316 28m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,004 30m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,260 34m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,087 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $3,048 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,432 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4,619 2h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $23 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $24 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 34¢ $24 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $24 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,638 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 12¢ $1,026 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $26 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 35¢ $25 2d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 18¢ $26 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4,814 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $78 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,145 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes $330 90d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers 53¢ $3,383 144d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers 55¢ $3,000 144d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,100 144d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Lopes 42¢ $1,000 144d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Fiziev 54¢ $1,000 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.93 · official $7.93 (match) · 99 history records