Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AD 0xade5…798b politics 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$58
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$916) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage64d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $359 $334 −$26 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,784 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,784 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,780 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $892 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $895 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $895 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,813 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $896 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $918 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $373 2h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 26h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $880 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $882 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $880 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $882 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $882 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $883 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $881 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $882 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $881 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $882 17d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 18d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $886 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $889 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $890 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $887 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $887 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $891 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $892 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $891 27d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $893 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $893 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $894 29d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 31d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 32d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $893 33d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 34d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $897 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.55 · official $333.55 (match) · 102 history records