Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xade4…8c73 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$5
other 28% −$7
economics 16% −$49
sports 13% −$2
world 5% −$4
tech 4% +$14
crypto 0% −$16
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 43 -2.4% -11.7% 16% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$524) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage231d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 24 $115 +$4 +4%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $108 +$7 +6%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $857 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $860 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $864 −$1 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $908 −$48 -5%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $911 −$3 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $116 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $522 −$4 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 13 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $39 +$1 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 10 $21 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 01 $44 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 22 $23 −$3 -13%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $22 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6? Jan 07 $16 −$16 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $23 $0 -1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 07 $24 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $115 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $113 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 22d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 22d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $111 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 22d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 22d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 22d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 22d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $114 22d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $115 25d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 93¢ $108 36d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $856 51d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $857 51d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 51d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $860 51d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $860 51d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $861 51d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $863 51d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $864 51d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $860 51d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $908 51d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $908 51d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $911 51d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $116 55d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $116 69d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $516 71d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $517 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records