Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xade1…1239 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
other 29% −$5
politics 5% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage450d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $37 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $36 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $62 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $13 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on April 2? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 03 $13 −$4 -27%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $8 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $9 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $19 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $37 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $36 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $30 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $6 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $36 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records