trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 53¢ | 52¢ | $18 | $18 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $105 | −$1 | -1% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $49 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 08 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Jun 27 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | May 19 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? | May 18 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? | May 18 | $21 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 17 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 17 | $21 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 30 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 30? | Mar 30 | $24 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Mar 29 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 40% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 21 | -9.3% | -18.0% | 29% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -25.8% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -33.0% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -39.6% | 0% | -33.6% |