Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadde…ec24 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$204 (+6%) realized +$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%61W / 73L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$358
14 days+$372
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$206
other 10% +$171
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% +4.7%
≤30d 134 +6.1% -4.0% 46% 46% +2.0%
≤90d 134 +6.1% -4.0% 46% 46% +2.0%
all 134 +6.1% -4.0% 46% 46% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 46% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 45% -7.8%
15% -21.6% 45% -16.7%
20% -29.3% 43% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses61 / 73
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 151
History coverage9d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 26 $31 −$5 -16%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $23 +$17 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $22 +$18 +82%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $30 +$20 +67%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer Jun 25 $30 −$22 -74%
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Sakamoto (+1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$25 +100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $53 +$11 +20%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $37 −$36 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $26 −$3 -12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $71 −$50 -71%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $23 −$21 -90%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $21 +$19 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $15 +$15 +97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $26 +$196 +764%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $16 +$44 +270%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $20 +$30 +150%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina Jun 24 $23 +$17 +73%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $24 −$12 -49%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $19 +$31 +162%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Jun 24 $15 +$15 +101%
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $38 +$62 +164%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $22 +$28 +124%
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 23 $16 +$24 +150%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan Jun 23 $32 −$14 -43%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $18 +$22 +122%
Set Handicap: Yuan (-1.5) vs Vandromme (+1.5) Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Set Handicap: Kalieva (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5) Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 23 $19 −$12 -62%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez Jun 23 $16 −$7 -41%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $22 −$8 -38%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 23 $11 −$8 -70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $15 −$9 -63%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $38 +$52 +137%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$17 +129%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$15 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) AND Türkiy BUY 29¢ $25 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 18¢ $26 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY 11¢ $40 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 11¢ $25 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) AND Japan vs. BUY 37¢ $25 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 58¢ $1 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 58¢ $22 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 24¢ $36 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 48¢ $19 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer SELL Marina Bassols Ribera 16¢ $8 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Bianca Andreescu 55¢ $13 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Bianca Andreescu 55¢ $9 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 60¢ $18 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 60¢ $12 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 60¢ $30 13h
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Sakamoto (+1.5) SELL Faria 100¢ $50 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $50 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 61¢ $30 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score A BUY 27¢ $26 14h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $23 14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $37 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto SELL Jaime Faria 57¢ $23 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer SELL Pablo Llamas Ruiz 4¢ $5 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Jaime Faria 64¢ $26 15h
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Sakamoto (+1.5) BUY Faria 50¢ $24 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym SELL Roman Safiullin 35¢ $14 16h
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Sakamoto (+1.5) BUY Faria 50¢ $1 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 42¢ $15 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 42¢ $11 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 42¢ $26 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records