Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xadda…c3c6 crypto 1468 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$268 (-1%) realized −$268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%1413W / 55L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$72
14 days−$183
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$288
tech 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -1.9% -11.2% 95% 3% -11.5%
≤30d 1237 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 1468 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 4% -8.8%
all 1468 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 4% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1413 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1468 / 1468
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1468 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $147 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $58 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $58 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records