Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadd4…06a2 crypto 847 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$791 (-3%) realized −$791 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%523W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,429
sports 3% +$87
world 0% −$85
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 -46.0% -51.2% 29% 27% -55.3%
≤30d 1012 -23.6% -30.9% 52% 36% -28.4%
≤90d 1012 -23.6% -30.9% 52% 36% -28.4%
all 1012 -23.6% -30.9% 52% 36% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 36% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 25% -35.2%
15% -43.5% 18% -41.5%
20% -49.1% 13% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$791
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses523 / 489
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1012 / 847
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1012 Trades
no open positions (370 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 Jun 17 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$17 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $24 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $13 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $13 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $13 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records