Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadd4…f00e
other · 43 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$18 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$13
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)26 / 43
History coverage123d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 17 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$3
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$10 +125%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$10 -56%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +23%
ITF Sumter: Kristina Liutova vs Reese Brantmeier Jun 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +29%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 03 $5 +$3 +49%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Perugia: Moez Echargui vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Birmingham: Jacob Fearnley vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 02 $201 +$21 +10%
Centurion 2: Sidharth Rawat vs Edward Winter Jun 02 $100 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $1 $0 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% +$28
other 17% −$9
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 9m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $12 2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $17 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $17 47h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 38% -12.5%
≤30d 25 +4.2% -5.7% 64% 32% -5.8%
≤90d 25 +4.2% -5.7% 64% 32% -5.8%
all 26 +0.2% -9.4% 62% 31% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 31% -6.7%
10% -18.0% 27% -15.6%
15% -26.0% 19% -23.8%
20% -33.2% 15% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.31 · official $13.31 (match) · 89 history records