Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadd1…2658 crypto 843 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$305 (-5%) realized −$332 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate71%577W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$0
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$295
weather 17% −$17
world 10% −$45
finance 3% +$68
politics 3% −$63
other 3% +$13
tech 1% −$3
culture 0% +$5
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -13.1% -21.4% 62% 21% -15.2%
≤30d 329 -5.2% -14.3% 65% 26% -15.3%
≤90d 704 -1.3% -10.7% 72% 49% -9.9%
all 818 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 47% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 47% -14.3%
10% -19.3% 25% -22.5%
15% -27.1% 11% -30.0%
20% -34.2% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$332
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses577 / 241
Open positions25
Markets (closed)818 / 843
History coverage257d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 818 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $25 $19 −$7 (-26%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? No 87¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+269%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? No 86¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? No 84¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 14 $0 $0 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 14 $0 $0 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 +$16 +426%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.96 · official $99.96 (match) · 2134 history records