Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadcd…29e9 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$561 (-3%) realized −$471 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%54W / 35L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$669
14 days−$669
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$831
world 26% +$119
tech 13% +$275
sports 13% −$613
politics 9% +$405
crypto 3% +$77
finance 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.3% -32.4% 55% 55% -43.0%
≤30d 16 -15.4% -23.5% 62% 62% -19.1%
≤90d 35 -21.8% -29.3% 60% 49% -20.6%
all 89 +12.7% +2.0% 61% 49% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 49% -12.0%
10% -7.8% 34% -20.4%
15% -16.7% 15% -28.1%
20% -24.8% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$106 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,955
Realized−$471
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses54 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions14
Markets (closed)89 / 103
History coverage159d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $500 $619 +$119 (+24%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 62¢ 97¢ $125 $195 +$70 (+56%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 68¢ $139 $187 +$48 (+34%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 74¢ 94¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 40¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 63¢ 14¢ $200 $46 −$154 (-77%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 70¢ 16¢ $150 $33 −$117 (-78%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 16¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 14 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 14 $202 −$115 -57%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $150 +$45 +30%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 31 $204 −$130 -64%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 31 $500 +$110 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 20 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 26 $100 +$65 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $250 +$150 +60%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $100 +$24 +24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 08 $400 +$41 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $355 −$355 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $500 +$43 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $75 +$12 +16%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 30 $300 −$300 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $200 +$38 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 30 $200 +$12 +6%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $75 +$10 +14%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $75 +$4 +5%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 30 $250 +$140 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 14 $500 +$48 +10%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Mar 07 $100 +$30 +30%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 02 $1,000 +$445 +44%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 28 $306 +$118 +38%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $20 +$23 +115%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 27 $50 +$12 +24%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Feb 27 $250 −$250 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 27 $20 +$5 +24%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 27 $20 +$6 +28%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 27 $250 −$250 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 27 $20 −$1 -3%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 27 $20 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $100 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $101 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 44h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $202 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $100 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $253 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $201 4d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 99¢ $120 4d
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? SELL Yes 20¢ $87 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $195 18d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? SELL No 13¢ $74 18d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY No 35¢ $204 29d
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 29d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $165 54d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 99¢ $400 54d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? SELL No 85¢ $124 69d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? BUY No 68¢ $100 69d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 71d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 71d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? SELL Yes 96¢ $253 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 44¢ $217 71d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $543 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 44¢ $138 71d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? SELL Yes 96¢ $58 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,954.51 · official $1,954.51 (match) · 270 history records